CIR: Vladimir Guerrero

VLADIMIR GUERRERO: BEGINNING TO END
The Draft Preview Reports have been consolidated onto the CIR Draft Blog for easy reference.
Saturday, December 13, 2003

CIR UPDATE: INDIANS TO SIGN GUERRERO!
Originally Posted: Thursday, December 11, 6:57 PM

Note: The bold print and capital letters were not in the original post. It is included now to show the hidden clues in the original message.

Just one day before the start of baseball's winter meetings in New Orleans, the CIR (cir.blogspot.com) has learned that Mark Shapiro and the Cleveland Indians are poised to drop one of the biggest bombshells in recent winter meetings history as the Indians are close to an agreement with Expos superstar outfielder Vladimir Guerrero on a multi-year contract.

Unusual circumstances have brought Guerrero and the Tribe together as a soft free-agent market and big market teams filling their needs (or soon to fill them) through trade left a rapidly shrinking market for the 27-year old who hit .330/.426/.586/1.012 with 25 homeruns while plagued by back problems last season.

Sources close to Guerrero indicated that only one other team had shown serious interest and that expected offers from the big market clubs never materialized. Additionally, the Guerrero camp was informed over the weekend not to expect bids from the Angels and Braves as they were going to allocate their dollars towards other needs. This unexpected turn of events forced Guerrero's agent to solicit interest from other teams via a series of letters and e-mails. A source close to the Indians says that it was the FIRST LETTER which indicated whether or not Guerrero was serious about playing in Cleveland.

Terms of the contract are still being held close by both sides but the source confirmed that it will be a four-year contract worth $60 million and that the Tribe will hold two club options for 2008 and 2009 that Guerrero can vest automatically based on performance. Other escalators and incentives can push the total value of the contract even higher. Although the dollars may differ, structurally, the deal is very similar to what we offered Jim Thome last season claims the source.

Key to this deal is the Indians ability to shed enough payroll to add a contract of this magnitude.

It's expected that Omar Vizquel will be traded to the Seattle Mariners and that deal could be announced as soon as tomorrow. The Mariners are expected to absorb all of Vizquel's 2004 salary now that they have been informed by Miguel Tejada's camp that the three-year, $24 million offer they made for the former AL MVP is short on both money and years. A trade with the Red Sox or Athletics involving Bob Wickman will follow depending on the outcome of the Keith Foulke sweepstakes. That deal is currently being reviewed by major league baseball as a complicated set of performance triggers will be used to determine how much of Wickman's 2004 salary the Indians will ultimately have to cover. Josh Bard may also be included in the deal with Oakland in exchange for the A's absorbing more of Wickman's 2004 salary.

Dealing Vizquel ($7 million) and Wickman ($5 million) will (potentially) save the Indians $12 million in 2004. Non-tendering Danys Baez and Jake Westbrook will save an additional $2-3 million which closely adds up to the $15 million that Guerrero will earn next season.

Depth in the outfield, with a projected starting threesome of Guerrero, Milton Bradley, and Jody Gerut, will now likely allow the Indians to consider moving Ryan Ludwick, Alex Escobar, and/or Alex Escobar for pitching and infield help. A small increase in payroll (originally projected at $43 million for 2004) will likely follow and our source reports that Indians are currently running revenue projection models to estimate the impact this signing will have on ticket sales and sponsorships.

It's expected that Guerrero will be in Cleveland tomorrow or Saturday for a physical and an official announcement could follow as soon as Monday.

Neither the Indians or Guerrero's agents returned calls this evening.

Guerrero is a four-time all-star with 234 homeruns who's hit .323/.390/.588/.978 in eight major league seasons. He made $11.5 million with the Expos last year.

! Wow! More in the next CIR

CIR UPDATE: Vlad Update
Originally Posted: Friday, December 12 6:20 AM

Before things really spiral out of control this morning, let me confirm that this story is false. There were clues in the post pointing to that fact but (as far as I know) no one has found them. That is your quest, should you choose to accept. A winter meetings and Rule 5 preview will follow later today in the next CIR.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Tony Graffanino discussion.

CIR UPDATE: Congrats to Patty
Originally Posted: December, Friday 12, 9:30 AM

Congratulations to Patty on being the first person to decipher the hidden message in last nights CIR Update!

The first clue hidden within the text was the last sentence of the third paragraph which read...

"A source close to the Indians says that it was the first letter which indicated whether or not Guerrero was serious about playing in Cleveland."

The second clue was the exclamation point "!" at the beginning of the last paragraph.

Taking the above into account, you find that the first letter of each paragraph spells out...

J U S T K I D D I N G !

Apologies to those who feel they have been hood-winked. A tip of the hat to those who have now deciphered the hidden clues. In an offseason where the highlight is shaping up to be claiming Cliff Bartosh off waivers, I hope we all enjoyed dreaming a little, even if it was for only one night.

But, alas, Vladimir Guerrero has less chance of being a Cleveland Indian than I do of, well, being a Cleveland Indian. After all, I'm a lot cheaper and can make the pivot at second base. But if it does happen, you heard it here first ;-).

CIR UPDATE
Originally Posted: Saturday, December 13, 2:15 PM

Hi Everyone,

As is now known, the Vladimir Guerrero story that I posted on Thursday was a joke. It was never intended to be read as fact or rumor. Aside from how unbelievable the story itself was, clues hidden within the text pointed to the fact that it was a joke and you can now see them highlighted in the message below (website only). It was intended to be nothing more than a humorous diversion so that Indians fans would laugh and say "boy, I wish that was true" before returning to the reality of a very quiet winter meetings and offseason.

Unfortunately, though, intent and reality are often two different things. To say that I expected to wake up this morning and find Paul Hoynes and Mark Shapiro discussing this story in the Plain Dealer is simply beyond words. I vastly underestimated the amount of people who would take this seriously, vastly underestimated the number of people who would not recognize the hidden clues and message, vastly underestimated how quickly and how far this story would spread, and all of that is very much a regrettable error on my part. To anyone who feels they were the victim of a cruel hoax, I offer my sincerest apologies.

I would also like to specifically apologize to any members of the media and major league clubs (especially the Indians) who spent any time on this story within the past 36 hours. At this busy time of year, I recognize that chasing false leads is not in anyone's best interests and for that I am truly sorry.

To the baseball blogging community, I would also like to express my regrets for any damage this may have done to the perception of online reporting. There are countless individuals and sites that churn out fantastic work on a daily basis as nothing more than a labor of love and that is something not to be trifled with. You can visit any number of these sites from the links on the CIR website and they are all worth spending some quality time with.

As for the CIR, it remains the same as it always has been, one fan's opinion of the news and events surrounding his favorite team. What may have changed, however, is your opinion of the CIR and that is something I recognize and respect. It has been a privilege to be welcomed into your mailbox and browser over the past two years and whether or not you choose for that to continue, please let it be known that I have appreciated your support.

Best Regards,
Joe.

posted on Saturday, December 13, 2003

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